Tuesday, April 2, 2013

That's the news

New orders for factory goods rose in February but a gauge of planned business spending slipped, suggesting factory activity continued to expand at a modest pace.
There's always a "but."  These days, though, the "but" seems to mostly be a confirmation of whatever came before the "but," just maybe not as good.

What Happened In Cyprus Will Happen Everywhere: Marc Faber
"The problem is that 92 percent of financial wealth is owned by 5 percent of the population. The majority of people don't own meaningful stock positions and they don't benefit from a rise in the stock market. They are being hurt by a rising cost of living and we all know that the real incomes of median households has been going down for the last few years," he said.
Yes, unless you include in those "real incomes of median households" the rising value of real estate.  Unfortunately, I don't know the specific data for home ownership off the top of my head.  But wages certainly have been going down for the last few years, and more than a few years for a lot of people.

"If you look at what happened in Cyprus, basically people with money will lose part of their wealth, either through expropriation or higher taxation," he added.
Certainly makes me feel good about not having any wealth.  Unfortunately, that wealth will not end up in my pocket either.

"You have more people that vote for a living than work for a living. I think you have to be prepared to lose 20 to 30 percent. I think you're lucky if you don't lose your life."
Well, I think a bloody revolution is a little further off than this year.  I do think the possibility of losing 20 to 30 percent this year is real, especially if what I've read about the high level of margin being used in the stock market turns out to be true.

Stockman: There are Bubbles All Over, Hide in Cash

Stockman goes on to lay out a case for his prediction: “This latest Wall Street bubble, inflated by an egregious flood of phony money from the Federal Reserve rather than real economic gains, will explode” in the next few years.
 So, Mr. Stockman gives it "a few years."  I don't know, but if it's really going to take a few years, then why run to cash now?  All that cash the the Fed is printing has to end up somewhere... might as well be in your pocket as anyone else's.  I just don't think it will take a few years, but you never know.  Any sign of weakness could prompt even more QE...

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