Friday, January 25, 2013


Amazingly, or perhaps not so much, analysts seem to be edging up their forecasts for the S&P for the year.  So far, the only rationale for this upward revision appears to be because the S&P 500 is up.  It goes something like this: "Well, we broke through the psychologically important 1500 level, so, outside of that pesky fiscal cliff thing in March, it's pretty much clear sailing to 1600."  I'm really expecting something much lower than that, but then, I usually underestimate the irrationality of markets, so we'll see.  I actually think that once we start to see the effect of the tax increases in the economy, we'll see a lot of analysts reversing their optimism.

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