Friday, May 17, 2013

That's the news

JPMorgan Goes All-In on Rally, Sees Surge Growing

This is the kind of thing that should really send investors running.  Analysts are raising forecasts for the stock market, and it has nothing to do with how the companies themselves are doing.  Instead, it's more like this: "It went up more than we thought it would this whole year, so we think it will go up a lot more."  And that's what they'll think right up until it goes down.  I'm not saying everyone should bail out; I'm saying don't get overly complacent.  I don't know how long the bull market will last... could be a day, or it could be five years, like I read yesterday.  I think the risk is getting higher, both on the plus and minus side.  There is still lots of money on the sidelines, which could push stocks a lot higher.  On the other hand, I've been reading that investors that are in the market are somewhat leveraged, and leverage makes for some pretty volatile markets.  In the end, as I've been saying, the longer this market continues, the worse the end is going to be.  Well, probably.  A bad ending isn't inevitable, but it is likely.

Gold’s Tumble To Continue: Hays

Yay!  Of course, nobody knows this, or remembers this I'm sure, but I actually said that gold at $1,500 was about the top.  It took a few months to get up to $1,800, which is still a 20 percent rise, so perhaps I wasn't as prescient as all that.  But now, with gold under $1,500, I feel somewhat vindicated, even though I'm sure nobody remembers my comments at the time.

May consumer sentiment highest in nearly six years 

It was the highest level since July 2007.
It sounds good, but take a look at this chart of the S&P 500.  See those three big peaks near the end?  See that middle peak?  That's July 2007.  Whee!

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