Monday, February 25, 2013

Market news today

Wall Street trips and falls on cloudy Italian election

Well, I'm not so sure this drop was all about Italy, although it may have been the catalyst.  Instead, I think it's more about what's happening right here in the U.S.  Only a few days left before we start seeing spending cuts.  And, of course, the market is still up quite a bit this year, so it needs a rest.

At any rate, based on what I've read about the upcoming cuts, I think we're heading for a recession.  And given that nobody really seems to expect it, or at least they don't seem to think it will be that bad, I think it may very well be really bad.  I don't think the government will be able to do much, and the Fed has already pretty much exhausted its bag of tricks.  The only thing that seems to be holding our economy together right now is people's apparent confidence in the economy.  But that confidence seems to be misplaced, at least in my opinion.

So, not surprisingly, stocks are down, bond yields are down, and gold is up.  Looks pretty much like a flight to safety, of sorts.  I wouldn't really call bonds safe, though.

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