I think I may have said this before, and if I didn't I meant to. I actually think that what the Fed is doing is the right thing. I just don't know that when it comes time to change they'll necessarily get that right. And I also think that today showed that the market may overreact to the end of QE. There's still a lot that can happen, but I think without QE we would be experiencing some pretty bad deflation. Still, I think the market is a bit overvalued and the end of QE will hurt stocks, but it may not be a total disaster. Gold, on the other hand, I think will be (a total disaster).
But whether the Fed is right right now doesn't much matter. Their actions are definitely manipulating the markets, and I don't much like that, although in some ways it does make things predictable. Then again, about the time everyone thinks that, something unpredictable breaks, which is why I think investors should be taking some off the table at this point. I certainly don't think this is a good time to be adding to positions, at least in stocks. Instead, use that money to stock the wine cellar.
The other thing that I think people aren't really talking about is that it's a real possibility we could dive back in to a recession, which would be bad all the way around. I don't think the Fed could really help, and the government... well, the federal debt is already so high that the interest in 2012 was $359,796,008,919.49. And that's with some ridiculously low interest. It's going to be interesting to see what the government does if recession does come our way.
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