Wednesday, February 20, 2013

Yeah, I think so

Critics Be Damned, Bernanke Is Getting it Right: Munson

I think I may have said this before, and if I didn't I meant to.  I actually think that what the Fed is doing is the right thing.  I just don't know that when it comes time to change they'll necessarily get that right.  And I also think that today showed that the market may overreact to the end of QE.  There's still a lot that can happen, but I think without QE we would be experiencing some pretty bad deflation.  Still, I think the market is a bit overvalued and the end of QE will hurt stocks, but it may not be a total disaster.  Gold, on the other hand, I think will be (a total disaster).

But whether the Fed is right right now doesn't much matter.  Their actions are definitely manipulating the markets, and I don't much like that, although in some ways it does make things predictable.  Then again, about the time everyone thinks that, something unpredictable breaks, which is why I think investors should be taking some off the table at this point.  I certainly don't think this is a good time to be adding to positions, at least in stocks.  Instead, use that money to stock the wine cellar.

The other thing that I think people aren't really talking about is that it's a real possibility we could dive back in to a recession, which would be bad all the way around.  I don't think the Fed could really help, and the government... well, the federal debt is already so high that the interest in 2012 was $359,796,008,919.49.  And that's with some ridiculously low interest.  It's going to be interesting to see what the government does if recession does come our way.

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