Friday, March 29, 2013

That's the news

Feeling Good on Jobs: March Consumer Sentiment Rises

"Consumers have discounted the administration's warning that economic catastrophe would follow the reductions in federal spending, and consumers have renewed their expectation that gains in employment will accelerate through the rest of 2013."
And that expectation could very well lead to acceleration in employment gains.  But then eventually, inevitably, when people realize that there's no real reason for all the gains, that there's no real reason to be so optimistic, there will be panic in the streets.

Consumer Spending in U.S. Climbs by Most in Five Months

Household purchases, which account for about 70 percent of the economy, gained 0.7 percent after a 0.4 percent advance the prior month that was bigger than previously estimated, a Commerce Department report showed today in Washington. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 78 economists called for a 0.6 percent rise. Incomes increased 1.1 percent, more than projected, sending the saving rate up from a five-year low.
Gee, it's getting a little tiresome here with initial estimates being revised up all the time.  It seems like not that long ago, the data was saying that incomes were down and spending was up.  So, perhaps there is more to the previous consumer sentiment story.

Bob Doll: Why I Expect Gold to Disappoint
On stocks, Doll said "it is unbelievable how long this has gone on without a pullback. We're going to correct at some point, but the point is that the economy is getting better, the Fed is in our court, earnings are going to be OK, the stock market is going to go higher."
So, it's beginning to feel like everyone is a bull, and there doesn't seem to be any reason to not be one.  Which could, in itself, be a reason to not be bullish.  But, this time it's different.  This time, we have the Fed on our side.  This time, we have the bigger fool telling us that they'll buy whatever we're selling for pretty much the next couple of years.  Might as well hang on a while longer.

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